How We Forecast the Gold Price
A transparent look at the model, the inputs, the assumptions — and the honest error bands.
Every forecast is only as useful as its methodology is transparent. This note walks through how we build our gold price scenarios — what we model explicitly, what we treat as regime input, and how wide the honest error bands really are.
The inputs
- 10-year real yields
- DXY trajectory
- Central-bank net purchases
- ETF flows and speculative positioning
What we do not model
Geopolitical shocks. They matter enormously but are not forecastable in a repeatable way. We treat them as scenario overlays.
The honest error bands
12-month price forecasts for gold have historical error bands of ±15%. Anyone claiming tighter precision is selling something.
The DeepGold editorial desk covers precious metals, macro, and monetary policy.
Editorial disclaimer: DeepGold research is independent and informational. Nothing on this page is investment advice.