Gold is not a short-term CPI hedge

The idea that gold moves tick-for-tick with the CPI is a myth. Over months and quarters, the correlation is weak. Over decades, gold has more than kept up with cumulative inflation — but the path is bumpy.

Why the disconnect

Short-term CPI moves are already priced into bonds and the dollar. Gold responds to the resulting real yields, not to the headline number itself.

What actually matters

Persistent inflation that central banks cannot or will not control. That is when gold delivers on its reputation.